ACUS48 KWNS 120939
SWOD48
SPC AC 120938

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain
over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This
pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the
continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result,
cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of
the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S.
through early next week.

..Broyles.. 01/12/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 120955
SWOD48
SPC AC 120954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain
over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This
pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the
continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result,
cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of
the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.
No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S.
through early next week.

..Broyles.. 01/12/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 130937
SWOD48
SPC AC 130935

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast
to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result,
northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the
continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are
expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will
keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation
through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be
unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is
not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.

..Broyles.. 01/13/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 140931
SWOD48
SPC AC 140930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level
troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be
maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent
ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia
coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even
as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent
westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may
continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold
surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become
less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf
Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that
low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive
of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by
Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not
yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or
become particularly strong.

..Kerr.. 01/14/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 150949
SWOD48
SPC AC 150947

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified
mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to
the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming
weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near
the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and
perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread
remains evident within and among the various model output concerning
shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale
split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts
on the downstream flow remain unclear.

In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf
Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening
belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific,
and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies
near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week.
However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the
period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying
Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.

..Kerr.. 01/15/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 160826
SWOD48
SPC AC 160825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the
Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface
high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with
cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much
in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of
the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper
trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over
western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during
the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop.
Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited
destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 160836
SWOD48
SPC AC 160834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the
Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface
high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with
cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much
in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of
the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper
trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over
western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during
the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop.
Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited
destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 170856
SWOD48
SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during
the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the
country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may
develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and
possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend.
These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the
TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the
Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a
developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain
shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across
portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early
Thursday morning.

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced
southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the
weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions
of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance
varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 180847
SWOD48
SPC AC 180845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains
and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest
Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley
ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be
possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and
severe potential is low.

Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement
with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The
control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some
increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the
end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any
Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these
large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.

..Leitman.. 01/18/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 190932
SWOD48
SPC AC 190931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period.
Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from
TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for
showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for
ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe
potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the
western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and
Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of
the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and
once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm
activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast
states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be
insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a
cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the
arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.

..Leitman.. 01/19/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 210837
SWOD48
SPC AC 210835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the
central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very
cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of
winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains
through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but
a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast
vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold
front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday.
Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm
potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and
the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the
weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding
thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 01/21/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 220856
SWOD48
SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will
develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the
Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue
to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front,
modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak
instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and
warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated
thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern
GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe
potential within the warm sector.

By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the
Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of
the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing
reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the
Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.

..Leitman.. 01/22/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 261000
SWOD48
SPC AC 260958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A
robust Arctic air mass associated with continued troughing over the
eastern US will be reinforced by several additional perturbations
moving out of Canada and a building western US ridge. As the flow
pattern aloft amplifies, surface cyclogenesis appears possible over
the eastern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard this weekend, further
increasing offshore flow and limiting substantial inland moisture return/destabilization. Thus, thunderstorm potential appears
negligible through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 01/26/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 270951
SWOD48
SPC AC 270950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very
low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend
as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies
along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the
eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early
next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over
the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely
for the foreseeable future.

..Lyons.. 01/27/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 280957
SWOD48
SPC AC 280956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A
highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue
through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A
prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong
surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will
support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass
over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture
transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm
potential for the next several days.

..Lyons.. 01/28/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 290943
SWOD48
SPC AC 290942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast
period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale
troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several
other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft
and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will
reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely
suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable
future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf
Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week,
overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the
extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 01/29/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 301001
SWOD48
SPC AC 301000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will continue throughout the Day 4 to 8
period across much of the nation, as a series of shortwave troughs
move southeastward through the flow. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Wednesday across
parts of the Southeast as a trough moves eastward into the eastern
U.S. Weak moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to keep
the stronger instability over the northern Gulf of America. For this
reason, a severe threat is not forecast with this system. Late in
the week, a cold and dry airmass will likely make thunderstorms
unfavorable across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 01/30/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 310959
SWOD48
SPC AC 310958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Embedded within broad midlevel troughing over the eastern half of
the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys and
Southeast on Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. During that time, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along an accompanying
cold front as it moves from east TX across the central Gulf Coast.
However, limited moisture/buoyancy ahead of the front should limit
severe potential.

Thereafter, a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude
thunderstorms across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 01/31/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 010929
SWOD48
SPC AC 010928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A midlevel trough and related cold front will move eastward across
the Southeast and FL Peninsula on Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. While
isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it
overspreads the central/eastern Gulf Coast states, limited
moisture/buoyancy will keep the severe risk low. Thereafter,
strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow over the MS/OH Valleys
will reinforce large-scale troughing over the eastern U.S. and
western Atlantic. This will favor a prolonged period of dry,
offshore flow -- limiting thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 02/01/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 020936
SWOD48
SPC AC 020934

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an
upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of
the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance
depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on
Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and
eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of
this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing,
evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains
and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current
indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of
the extended forecast period.

..Weinman.. 02/02/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 030940
SWOD48
SPC AC 030939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry,
offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least
Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will
be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance
depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across
the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern
Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are
that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the
CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe
potential.

..Weinman.. 02/03/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 040945
SWOD48
SPC AC 040944

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough
advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains
vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall
evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model differences), current indications are that the
unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and
weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.

..Weinman.. 02/04/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 050958
SWOD48
SPC AC 050956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern
Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave
and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While
thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of
this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf
moisture will limit appreciable severe potential -- especially given
modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough.

In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the
West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer
moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in
the extended forecast period.

..Weinman.. 02/05/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 070853
SWOD48
SPC AC 070851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Gulf Coast States...

An upper shortwave trough embedded within broader upper ridging
across the eastern half of the U.S., will move across the Gulf Coast
states Day 4-5/Tue-Wed. Modified Gulf moisture (50s to near 60 F
dewpoints) will overspread portions of the south-central and
southeast CONUS during this time. The upper trough is expected to
weaken as it moves east, and destabilization is expected to remain
meager. While some thunderstorm potential could emerge, severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat - Southern States...

Another upper trough is forecast to move across the Southwest on Day
6/Thu, and continue eastward across the Southeast through Day 8/Sun. Quasi-zonal flow/weak upper riding will persist downstream from this
feature across the southern Plains into the Southeast, allowing for
some degree of modified Gulf moisture to develop near the Gulf Coast
vicinity. However, forecast guidance varies in the strength of the
developing upper trough, and with regards to potential moisture
return across the south-central/southeast states. Some increase in
thunderstorm potential may develop by the end of the period across
the region, but severe potential appears low/uncertain given large
spread among guidance.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2026

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